In Followup on
20 December 2010 with no comments
On October 21st, I reported on how David Einhorn pulled the plunger on Florida real estate developer St. Joe, and how contrarians could get a 7% return if the bet on a gap fill.
Well, it took a couple of months, plus a trip through the wilderness of new 52 week lows, but that gap did fill (on news of management changes), and the contrarians were rewarded with nice profits:
I will be off until January 3rd, hopefully enjoying the Christmas and New Year holidays, but I will be eagerly looking for good opportunitues like this next year! See you then . . .
In Trades on
9 December 2010 with 1 comment
I have been following Supervalu for almost the nine month life of this site and finally took a bite this afternoon, and bought 1000 shares at $8.64:
This supermarket chain was once considered a buy here at 13 last June, but has recently dropped onto the 52-week low list:
So I am now a proud owner of this train wreck, which made some minor news yesterday by selling a unit that makes software for retail management. The ever eroding market value has also sparked some takeover talk.
Basically, I am shooting to fill that big gap at 12, but this is a long term trade that made make or doom my effort for a 100% yearly return. If that knife stops falling, and a turnaround looms, I may have truly found a “Super Value” after all!
In Trades on
22 November 2010 with no comments
I unloaded my position in CPWM for $7.70 this Monday morning for a tidy profit of $2, 350.00.
It only took 170 days (since June 4th) to close this trade! That’s about 2/3 of the existence of this web site, and by far the longest term hold I have had while trading here. Yes, I was stuck for a long time, but on this trade patience and perseverance eventually won out.
Cost Plus soared to multi-year highs on a 3rd quarter earnings beat Friday:
I have now crossed the halfway point as well as the two thirds point in my quest to double the trading account in a year. Total profits after starting with $10,000 are now just about $7,300, so things are looking up again.
There remains the matter of getting Brazil to tank, so I can make something on my large BZQ position, but I am confident those upside gaps will eventually fill!
In Trading Candidates on
24 October 2010 with no comments
Is it politically correct to be bearish on our respected elders, and those who would take good care of them? Consider Brookdale Senior Living:
BKD soared Friday on news that a competitor, Atria, had their real estate assets purchased, and the Street just figures, you know, that lightning just must strike in the same place twice. For those that don’t necessarily agree, Brookdale now presents a whopping 20% opportunity for astute (and bearish) gap traders.
In Followup on
21 October 2010 with no comments
Update: The higher gap (around $31) we were looking at last week has indeed filled:
A nice trade that we provided here, that increased so far 15.6% in nine trading days.
If I was in GMCR, I would take profits here, I wouldn’t be greedy and try to get the $38 gap to fill, but for those who truly believe in a GMCR comeback — good luck!
In Pure speculation! on
21 October 2010 with no comments
I don’t know if we can call last week’s action in St. Joe a classic gap,
. . . more like a continuous meltdown. What happened was influential investor David Einhorn announced at a conference that he was shorting the company, describing their Florida developments as “moonscapes.” Joe’s largest shareholder, Barry Berkowitz retorted that he was going to buy more, up to 100% if possible. So it looks like we have a classic debate on the likelihood of a recovery in that ever-popular commodity called Florida real estate.
You could consider last Wednesday’s close at 22 a gap to shoot for and you will get a 7.4% return when it fills.
In Followup on
20 October 2010 with no comments
Here’s one I was following pretty closely here in the spring:
Supervalue gapped lower yesterday on an earning report indicating a quarterly loss and stalled turn-around plan. More than ten percent is available here if we can get SVU to fill that gap relatively quickly.
In Stock of the Day on
15 October 2010 with Comments Off on Massive gap to be filled on Google — GOOG
OK bears, and all those with the long knives out for search giant Google; here’s your chance:
You just know that massive 10% gap on 3rd quarter earnings is going to fill; its just a question of how long. Any guesses? There is some serious money to be made on this one!
In Followup on
13 October 2010 with Comments Off on First gap filled on GMCR
The adventurous have profited from Sunday’s post: we got a nice gap fill at the $28 level and beyond:
Not bad for a quickie trade, anyone gonna stick around and see if $31 fills?
In Pure speculation! on
10 October 2010 with no comments
Now that bullish times have returned (for most), lets take a look at a real challenge for bulls who like to see gaps filled — out old friend Green Mountain Coffee Roasters:
Of course, accusations of accounting gimmickry and an SEC investigation of same goes a long way to scaring off most investors, and a return to $38 would be too much to ask for, but look closely and you will find numerous smaller gaps that (notably $28 and $31) set to be filled on the rebound. Good Luck!