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Checking out the Florida Everglades for a week

Looks like I’ll be leaving for vacation tomorrow with two positions open — both negative bets on VIX options.

I’ll be spending a week decompressing in the Florida Everglades — no phones, no ‘net, no trades, so I’ll just have to see how things turn out when I return on August 30th.

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Earnings season may be winding up, but the season for rationalizations is in full swing!

With the market plunging almost 20% in three weeks at its worst, you knew it wouldn’t be long before some short term speculators were turned into long term investors!

Scott Kirsner of the Boston Globe has listed some of his favorite bear market rationalizations and bromides at Boston.com:

■Venture capitalists: “We are counter-cyclical investors.’’

“Economic […]

Why humans can’t predict the future, the stock market included

I haven’t yet read the book “Future Babble” by Canadian journalist Dan Gardner, but the review by Jesse Singal in the Boston Globe is intriguing, and it looks like it might shoot to the top of my reading list.

Gardner’s thesis is that humans make lousy prediction machines, at least when matched up with the […]