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Half the year is in the bag — how are we doing?

Last year, the run-in to the Independence Day weekend proved to be the low point of the year. This time it’s different, of course, with the markets making a big run over the last four days of the second quarter: So let’s simplify things:

The S&P is now up 4.9% for the year so far […]

VIX is once again under 20

With the markets popping today: the VIX is right where I like it — back under 20 again! It will be interesting to see if the S&P can crack through the overhead resistance at 1300, and if so, how easy it is to do it.

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Need to worry? Here’s some fuel for your fire . . .

If the market is going to climb the wall of worry, I figure lots of people will need stuff to worry about. Therefore, as a public service, I offer to you Brett Jensen’s “10 reasons to Worry about the second half of 2011” from the Seeking Alpha site.

My favorite: the chance for an accelerated […]

Will the market stay positive for the year?

It’s nice to take some longer-term perspective every once in a while (or maybe all the time)!: With that in mind, there is one level I will be watching this week — 1258, where the S&P 500 closed on New Year’s Eve. I want to see if we “go red” by the half-way point or […]

Another week that wasn’t?

The last bar on this weekly chart just about sums it up: Or does it? While the markets barely moved on a weekly basis once again, there sure was a lot of action for the action junkies this week. A nice big fake-out to the upside on Tuesday, and then more or less a continual […]

A slow down in stock market blogging?

Is stock market blogging slowing to a crawl? Or am I just imagining things (again)?

Seems like some of my favorite bloggers are awful tardy lately. The once high-flying Market Speculator hasn’t posted since March.

And the trader that I probably would most like to emulate (if we weren’t supposed to “find our own style” […]

Another chance to short Brazil?

This trade is taking an eternity to pan out, but can’t help noticing the developing inverse head-and-shoulders in BZQ, the ultra-short Brazil fund: But again, it seems like an eternity, and you never know for sure if these patterns will in fact be confirmed.

Look where the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average is

The 200 day moving average for the S&P 500 index is now perched at 1259 — just a point higher than where we closed out 2010, at 1258.

Look for convergence in this area before we move dramatically higher or lower — and it might be quite a battle, especially with the March lows for […]

June expiration caps the week that wasn’t

Quadruple witching day for June 2011 brought the S & P 500 right to 1271, which was exactly where it closed last Friday too. In between, a big Tuesday, a super slamdown Wednesday, a touch of the 200 day moving averages Thursday (and a temporary erasure of the year’s gains), but the fact remains that […]

Touching the 200: Story of the summer?

I take my lumps in public here, so its not red-boarding to point out the sucessful predictions (guesses?) when they actually do occur!

Thursday we briefly touched to 200 day moving average on the S & P 500, fulfilling my prophecy of May 25th that it would in fact be hit this summer. In May […]