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Break through at the close

I had previously marked 1340 on the S & P 500 as an important level, and although the market gapped higher in the first half hour, it quickly retreated to below that level for most of the day: The last half-hour into the close, however proved very strong, and we did have a close above […]

No urge to go away . . .

You may have the urge to “sell in May, and go away,” and so may I, but the market is doing surprisingly well regardless: Of course, I won’t be convinced until we see a close and hold above 1340, but that now looks like a project for next week. In the meantime, I hope you […]

The line in the sand, part 2

Yesterday, I suggested that traders would be better off waiting to see if the market clears S & P 1335, before loading up on bullish positions. Here’s a slightly different chart, where the line in the sand looks like it should be drawn at 1340: I’m not sure there is all that much difference between […]

A long time between tests

It’s been a long time since the S & P 500 tested the 200 day moving average, hasn’t it? Last year we spent much of the middle portion of the year (roughly March – September) underneath the 200. Since then it’s now been eight plus months without a whiff of that level. And the market […]

Which way for Corn?

Will this be a scorching summer for grains and agricultural commodities? Corn has been on a nice rise: The chart shows corn right in the middle of it’s trend channel, but sitting above support points represented by the 20 and 50-day moving averages. I’m passing for now, as I would prefer the bottom of the […]

The line in the sand — where I would draw it

If you’ve been confused by the stock markets lately, don’t feel alone — there haven’t been a lot of good tells, but there are plenty of contrary opinions and a lot of lackluster trading days. But for what it’s worth, here is the line I will be watching above all else: If we see more […]

A missed opportunity

With the big opening gap down today, VIX started the morning at almost –but not quite — 20, which I what I need to maximize my bullish-on-VIX option position. But from the open, VIX steadily eroded: while the market as a whole never recovered: I think we need to see a swift reclamation of that […]

A trend line a bull’s gotta love!

If you have bullish instincts, why not trade this support line (drawn on a chart of the S & P 500)?

Notice that both the March and April lows sliced right through the 50-day moving average with no problem, but that sweet recoveries ensued anyway. Re- tracing to the support line now would just about […]

Escaping unscathed on VIX settlement day

With the markets opening mixed this morning, I escaped unscathed with my remaining May VIX options position, which was a now-naked sale of VIX 20 calls. The May settlement figure for VIX came in at 18.02, and though it is not material for my trade, VIX has since deteriorated further to the mid-16 range.

Maybe […]

The time of reckoning

Well I’ve been battling a sore foot for most of the past month, which has kept me from posting here, which might be just as well as I’ll be quick to admit to being baffled by the present market situation.

While I’ve been tending to my foot, my VIX option positions haven’t been doing nothing, […]